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follow @anthonyjwells advertisement advertisement pollsters angus reid bpix british election study british polling council comres icm ipsos mori opinium populus yougov news bbc guardian independent politicshome telegraph times blogs adam bienkov alex harrowell by elections blog conservative home cramner critical reaction danny finkelstein (£) dave hill dizzy thinks election law channel fistful of euros green benches guido fawkes harry’s place hopi sen jerry hayes john band kevin maguire labour uncut labourlist left foot forward lib dem voice liberal conspiracy lord norton luke akehurst mark blumenthal mark pack mark reckons matt wardman neil harding new statesman next left nick barlow norfolk blogger paul linford paul waugh platform 10 political hack uk political scrapbook polling observatory revolts slugger o’toole socialist unity spectator coffee house straight statistics stumbling & mumbling three line whip tom greeves advertisement disclaimer copyright anthony wells 2004-2013. the views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and in no way reflect the views of yougov plc. privacy policy articles & faqs contact about electoral bias sampling weighting likelihood to vote shy tories? wording archive june 2018 may 2018 april 2018 march 2018 february 2018 january 2018 december 2017 november 2017 october 2017 september 2017 august 2017 july 2017 june 2017 may 2017 april 2017 march 2017 february 2017 january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 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2006 may 2006 april 2006 march 2006 february 2006 january 2006 december 2005 november 2005 october 2005 september 2005 august 2005 july 2005 june 2005 may 2005 stuff subscribe in a reader latest yougov and survation voting intentions 8 jun 2018 a year since the election, we have two new gb voting intention polls (from yougov and survation) and a new scottish poll (also from yougov) today. looking at the yougov /times gb poll first, voting intentions are con 44%(+2), lab 37%(-2), ldem 8%(-1). the seven point conservative lead is the largest since the election but normal caveats apply – it is only one poll. over the last two months yougov have been showing a steady conservative lead of around 4 or 5 points, so normal sample variation alone is enough to explain the occassional 7 point lead. watch the trend, rather than getting excited over individual polls. full tabs are here . survation ‘s topline figures are con 41%(nc), lab 40%(nc), ldem 9%(+1). changes are since mid may. like yougov, survation have shown a steady position for the last couple of months, but there’s an obvious contrast in terms of what that position is – yougov have a steady small tory lead, survation are showing the parties steadily neck-and-neck. as i’ve said before, there’s not an obvious methodological reason for this (while survation have a very distinct sampling approach to their phone polls, this is an online poll and their online polls use broadly similar methods to yougov, icm and other companies, so there’s no obvious reason for differing results). full tabs for the survation poll are here . meanwhile yougov’s scottish voting intentions are westminster: con 27%(+4), lab 23%(-5), ldem 7%(+1), snp 40%(+4) holyrood constituency: con 27%(+1), lab 22%(-1), ldem 6%(-1), snp 41%(+3) holyrood regional: con 26%(+1), lab 21%(-1), ldem 7%(nc), snp 32%(nc). changes here are since the previous scottish yougov poll, way back in january. there is very little movement in holyrood support, but in scotland the conservatives have moved back into second place. full tabs for the scottish poll are here . tweet filed under: survation , voting intention , yougov 562 comments » why the polls were wrong in 2017 7 jun 2018 it is year since the 2017 general election. i am sure lots of people will be writing a lot of articles looking back at the election itself and the year since, but i thought i’d write a something about the 2017 polling error, something that has gone largely unexamined compared to the 2015 error. the polling companies themselves have all carried out their own internal examinations and reported to the bpc, and the bpc will be putting out a report based on that in due course. in the meantime, here are my own personal thoughts about the wider error across the industry. the error in 2017 wasn’t the same as 2015 . most casual observers of polls will probably have lumped the errors of 2015 and 2017 in together, and seen 2017 as just “the polls getting it wrong again”. in fact the nature of the error in 2017 was completely different to that in 2015. it would be wrong to say they are unconnected – the cause of the 2017 errors was often pollsters trying to correct the error of 2015 – but the way the polls were wrong was completely different. to understand the difference between the errors in 2015 and the errors in 2017 it helps to think of polling methodology as being divided into two bits. the first is the sample – the way pollsters try to get respondents who are representative of the public, be that through their sampling itself or the weights they apply afterwards. the second is the adjustments they make to turn that sample into a measure of how people would actually vote, how they model things like turnout and accounting for people who say don’t know, or refuse to answer. in 2015, the polling industry got the first of those wrong, and the second right (or at least, the second of those wasn’t the cause of the error). the sturgis inquiry into the 2015 polling error looked at every possible cause of error, and decided that the polls had samples that were not representative. while they didn’t think the way pollsters predicted turnout was based on strong enough evidence and recommended improvements there too, they ruled it out as cause of the 2015 error. in 2017 it was the opposite situation. the polling samples themselves had pretty much the correct result to start with, showing only a small tory lead. more traditional approaches towards modelling turnout (which typically made only small differences) would have resulted in polls that only marginally overstated the tory lead. the large errors we saw in 2017 were down to the more elaborate adjustments that pollsters had introduced. if you had stripped away all the attempts aimed at modelling turnout, don’t knows and suchlike (as in the table below) then the underlying samples the pollsters were working with would have got the conservative lead over labour about right: what did pollsters do that wa

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